Is Jacoby Ellsbury the Answer?

Jacoby Ellsbury likes to dance.

Unfortunately, it’s in the batter’s box.

So far this year I have seen Ellsbury adjust his stance three times. Hitting coach Dave Magadan had mentioned that Ellsbury’s feet were tapping and moving around too much. Together the two worked to establish a little bit of rhythm in batting practice.

On Friday night, Ellsbury continued the jig. He is still a great player and well above average center fielder but sometimes you have to wonder if he is legitimately cut out to set the table for a potent offense.

There is no question that Ellsbury can run as signified by his 50 stolen bases in 2008. He steals bases quite efficiently so Tito Francona will let him go when he gets on. In 2008, ellsbury posted a .336 OBP. Yuck. We are looking for .360 or better here.

People will point to Ellsbury’s 2007 burst in to MLB. He hit .353 and posted an OBP of nearly .400 in just 33 games. His OPS was over .900 and suddenly the Johnny Damon comparisons that had followed him through the minors appeared to be legit.

The biggest drawback for me in that sample size was Ellsbury’s BABIP. With a BABIP over .388, you knew that was going to correct itself over a larger sample size and in 2008, it did, finishing at just .314. With the league average being roughly .295-.300, Ellsbury’s Batting Average of Balls in Play is somewhat disappointing. Usually players with his speed can post a bit higher.

All this being said, Ellsbury is a valuable asset. He leads off for the Boston Red Sox and is followed in the lineup by Pedroia, Ortiz, and Youkilis. This means even with an OBP over less than .340, Ellsbury will still score over 100 runs.

As soon as Ellsbury figures it out, he will be a perennial All-Star with multiple Gold Gloves. In 2009, I think the Boston Red Sox will have a superior defensive center fielder who will swipe 50+ and score 100+. Just don’t look for a .300 batting average or double digit HRs from Jacoby Ellsbury.