Early Offensive Projections for the Boston Red Sox

Setting the Sights to the Summer

Some numbers to chew on.

It’s still November and we are without our first snowfall in my neck of the woods, but we are always thinking about baseball. It’s what makes being a Red Sox fan so fun. It’s a year round sport for us even if the players are off vacationing in warmer climates.

As of November 28th, the Red Sox have still not made any significant trades or free agent acquisitions. If the season were to start today, the lineup would probably look as follows:

1. Jacoby Ellsbury CF
2. Dustin Pedroia 2B
3. Victor Martinez C
4. Kevin Youkilis 1B
5. David Ortiz DH
6. Mike Lowell 3B
7. JD Drew RF
8. Jeremy Hermida LF
9. Jed Lowrie SS

It’s not the most inspiring lineup, but using a combination of Bill James’ and CHONE projections, the numbers say the offense will be OK, but my gut still goes “Ehhh.” Not that impressive for a Fenway-team.

Using the set of players above as a preliminary lineup and projecting the additional bench players, the Red Sox would score about 814 runs as a team. Now granted, this is some rough-sketch analysis, but it’s interesting to compare it to the 2009 team that scored 872 runs. 814 runs puts them on par with the 2009 Minnesota Twins. Again, not terrible, but in no way competing with New York, Philadelphia or the Angels.

The additional hitters I included outside of the starters were Kotchman, Nick Green, Jason Varitek and Brian Anderson. Again, not perfect because there will be so many other contributors, but just for the simple exercise now, it does the trick.

Bill James projections for the presumed starters:

Ellsbury – .302 BA, 9 HR, 62 RBI, 106 Runs, 64 SB, .355 wOBA
Pedroia – .307 BA, 15 HR, 75 RBI, 109 Runs, 16 SB, .369 wOBA
Martinez – .298 BA, 19 HR, 97 RBI, 78 Runs, 1 SB, .368 wOBA
Youkilis – .298 BA, 23 HR, 95 RBI, 98 Runs, 6 SB, .382 wOBA
Ortiz – .269 BA, 29 HR, 99 RBI, 79 Runs, 0 SB, .382 wOBA
Lowell – .278 BA, 19 HR, 84 RBI, 66 Runs, 2 SB, .345 wOBA
Drew – .269 BA, 22 HR, 76 RBI, 90 Runs, 3 SB, .376 wOBA
Hermida – .267 BA, 20 HR, 73 RBI, 77 Runs, 5 SB, .350 wOBA
Lowrie – .260 BA, 9 HR, 59 RBI, 55 Runs, 2 SB, .347 wOBA

If the Red Sox make a deal for a big-time hitter then obviously Lowell, Lowrie or Hermida would be cast off to the bench or dealt in the case of Lowell. Right now, I think this offense looks like a 92 or 93 win team which is not going to make the playoffs. The pitching would really need to tip the balance to pick up those extra three or four wins to sneak into the Wild Card.

Again, it’s just a November exercise in futility, but what else are we going to do two days after Thanksgiving?

81 days until pitchers and catchers report.

“People ask me what I do in the winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.”
—Rogers Hornsby

Darryl Johnston is the Red Sox correspondent for Fanball.com. He has many years of sports writing under his championship belts. Email him – redsoxdj@gmail.com</em>

Tags: Bill James, Boston Red Sox, Brian Anderson, Casey Kotchman, CHONE, Darryl Johnston, David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Fanball, Fenway Park, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jason Varitek, JD Drew, Jed Lowrie, Jeremy Hermida, Kevin Youkilis, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Mike Lowell, New York Yankees, Nick Green, Philadelphia Phillies, Rogers Hornsby, Sox Tea Party, Victor Martinez