9 Innings in the AL East (Part 3 of 5)

9 Innings in the AL East — Rays

Oh, Tampa.

How much better things were when you were bad. What happened to the days of Dewon Brazelton, Seth McClung and Travis Lee? I don’t like this new run-and-gun Tampa team. Bring back Larry Rothschild!

In Part 3 of our ‘9 Innings in the AL East’,  we talk with Fanball’s Jason Collette, the man behind the curtain at DockOfTheRays. Jason offers up his thoughts on the Red Sox, the division and the Sox’ organizational philosophy. Enjoy.

STP: The Red Sox organization has aggressively shifted philosophies towards run prevention. As an AL East opponent, does this make you more or less confident to face them and why?

Jason Collette: Less confident. As a Rays fan, I’ve seen how run prevention works well and there were times last year when the Rays would beat the Sox because Bay would butcher a rather routine ball or Lowell couldn’t move well enough to make a play. The additions they have made in the off-season have led me to predict them winning our division in 2010 because the defensive changes will be noticed right away and the club won’t need to score as many runs as they’ve had to do in the past to make up for the bad defense.

STP: Explain how you think the Red Sox will finish the 2010 season. Is this team a division winner? Wild Card? Will the perceived lack of offense bounce them from the playoffs?

JC: My predictions are 94 wins for Boston, 93 for New York, and 90 for the Rays. I don’t think the lack of offense is problematic until the World Series and frankly, their “lack” of offense is still above the American League average. The effect of run production will benefit the starting pitchers who will not have to work as hard in certain innings which can let them work longer into the game and protect the bullpen throughout the season. An outfield of Ellsbury, Cameron, and Drew are not going to let many fly balls find grass and adding Adrian Beltre vastly improves the defense at third base. Beltre is an amazing defender at third base – even better than Evan Longoria. Ignore his poor hitting stats of late – he’ll thrive in Fenway and his defense will quickly earn the praise of the Red Sox Nation.

STP: Some Boston fans feel that old stalwarts like Tim Wakefield and Mike Lowell ‘deserve’ to play and be starters at their respective positions because of their longer-term contributions to the team. Wakefield has been in Boston since 1993 and Lowell was the 2007 World Series MVP. The team has relegated Lowell to a spare part who should be traded soon and Wakefield is a spot-starter. Are they being treated unfairly?

JC: Baseball is a business. When you start giving guys more time based on what they’ve done rather than what you think they will do, you get into trouble. As a Rays fan, I would love to see Boston give Lowell and Wakefield as much time as possible, but it simply is not in the best interest of the club. If Lowell can get healthy enough to do a trade to send him elsewhere as the club attempted to do in December, that’s the best thing they can do for him. Wakefield has been the ultimate team player who has always done whatever the team has asked of him and he will likely continue to do the same but he has definitely seen his better days.

STP: In respect to Fenway Park, what is your opinion with regard to a new stadium? Should Boston build a new Fenway or stick with the tradition that has sat on Landsdowne since 1912?

JC: I would like to see a new ballpark with more modern luxuries, but with the same exact field dimensions. I enjoy watching how games are played there, but it is not a very good place to watch a game as a common fan who can’t afford the great seats. I’ve been there for a Devil Rays game back in 1999 and sat in centerfield and it was quite uncomfortable as a tall guy. I have the same complaints about Wrigley too – love the location, love the playing field, but the rest of the stadium needs an upgrade.

STP: Manny Ramirez is in Hollywood and David Ortiz is in the waning years of his career. Those two Red Sox hitters provided one of the best 3-4 combos in the history of modern baseball. Today’s lineup is markedly altered. Who in the Red Sox lineup concerns you the most in 2010?

JC: Dustin Pedroia is still the guy I hate to see come up to hit against the Rays – although I feel a little better now that we no longer have Scott Kazmir. Pedroia is such a tough out and really works the count in his favor and can frustrate a pitcher. He is next to impossible to strike out so he puts the pressure on the defense to get him out and nobody will ever accuse him of dogging it down the line.

STP: Red Sox fans travel well and often will ‘take over’ a visiting park. This tends to unsettle the locals. I have been to both Philadelphia and Baltimore games where the seats where filled with predominantly Red Sox travelers. What is your honest opinion on Red Sox fans?

JC: Honest opinion of Red Sox fans? That’s tough. My brother is a huge Red Sox fan (followed Clemens from University of Texas), one of my lifelong friends and his family that consider me another son are huge Sox fans, and my dear friend Melissa and her husband who live in Sturbridge are Sox fans. Outside of those people, Red Sox nation drives me insane. I remember watching the Sox games when there were as many empty seats at Fenway as there were in Tropicana Field – when only 13,500 or so fans saw Rocket strike out 20 Mariners. Since the rings in 2004 and 2007, the fans I encounter in the central Florida area have this impossible sense of entitlement that until then had only been found in Yankee fans. I don’t know what it is about the Red Sox Nation members in Florida but they all seem to act like Jimmy Fallon’s character on SNL. I had to sit behind 3 of them for Game 1 of the 2008 ALCS and it was at that moment that Red Sox fan overtook Yankee fan on my hate list.

STP: Was the Daisuke Matsuzaka acquisition a failure for the Red Sox organization? Boston paid a large posting fee to acquire his services. Matsuzaka has a lot of flash, but tends to struggle and his detractors in Boston are vocal. Was the Japanese phenom worth the investment or was this a organizational miscalculation?

JC: I think if the Sox had the chance to purge the Daisuke Matzusaka move from the books, they would. They spent a lot of money on someone who has turned out to be a nibbling prima donna pitcher. I would have to imagine there would be some resentment from within the clubhouse when a guy has that many perks written into his deal and he still cannot be kept happy. From an outsider’s prospective, his attitude belies someone who has won multiple Cy Youngs but he’s been nothing more than a middle of the rotation pitcher.

STP: If you had to make an argument for any current Red Sox as a future Hall of Famer, who would it be and why?

JC: Pedroia is the only player I can seriously entertain that is off to a good start for a hall of fame career. Playing second base certainly helps and he already owns an MVP award and Rookie of the Year award. My fear is he is just too small to hold up over a long career and that violent swing of his that generates his pull power will be tough to maintain in his 30’s.

STP: The Red Sox will face your team 19 teams in 2010 with many long and drawn-out battles. When October finally comes, what will your team’s record be vs. Boston?

JC: The Rays went 14-12 against Boston in 2008 and the two teams split the 2009 series 9-9. Put me down for 8-10 in 2010 with Boston taking the season series. The two teams always play very competitive games except for when Shields pitches against Boston in Fenway.